一、马赛克理论定义
Mosaic Theory: 分析师通过收集公开信息和非重大非公开信息，经过分析和综合，得出投资结论的过程。这是合法的投资研究方法。
二、合法 vs 非法的分界线
─────────────────────────────────────────────
合法（Mosaic Theory）
─────────────────────────────────────────────
公开财报分析 ✅
行业趋势研究 ✅
公司官网/公告 ✅
实地调研（公开信息） ✅
向管理层提问
→ 管理层只回答公开信息 ✅
竞争对手分析 ✅
专家网络（不超过保密线）✅
─────────────────────────────────────────────
⚠️ 分界线在这里
─────────────────────────────────────────────
非法（II(A) 违规）
─────────────────────────────────────────────
内部人士泄露非公开利润预警 ❌
提前获知未公告的并购 ❌
从公司员工获知未公开重大合同 ❌
获取未公开的监管处罚信息 ❌
─────────────────────────────────────────────
三、关键案例
案例 1：拼图成功
分析师在研究一家零售公司。他收集了：① 公开财报 ② 行业销售数据 ③ 公司公开声明 ④ 实地走访多家门店观察客流量。综合得出结论：公司下季度营收将超预期 15%。
判定：✅ 合规。 所有信息来源都是公开或通过独立观察获得的。这就是 Mosaic Theory 的经典应用。
案例 2：加入非法碎片
分析师在做同样的研究时，从该公司内部人士处得知："供应链出了大问题，下季度出货量会大幅下降"。分析师将此信息加入分析并建议客户卖出。
判定：❌ 违规。 虽然分析师也用了大量公开信息，但一旦混入了重大非公开信息并据此交易，Mosaic Theory 的豁免就失效了。
案例 3：专家网络
分析师付费咨询一位行业专家（前业内人士）。分析师问："你认为你前公司这个季度表现如何？"专家根据在职时获知的非公开信息回答了具体利润数字。
判定：❌ 违规。 即使通过第三方（专家），获取重大非公开信息并据此交易 = II(A) 违规。专家可能也违反了对前雇主的保密义务。
案例 4：管理层会议
分析师参加公司季度业绩电话会。CEO 在回答问题时不小心透露："我们刚签了一个大客户，但还不能公布具体金额，反正很大。"分析师立即建议客户买入。
判定：❌ 违规。 CEO 的口误仍然是非公开的重大信息。分析师听到后应立即联系公司合规部确认信息是否公开——在确认公开之前不能交易。
四、Mosaic Theory 最佳实践
研究前
├── 明确信息来源：都是公开渠道吗？
└── 设置合规检查点：什么信息需要停下来确认？
研究中
├── 记录每一条信息的来源和时间
├── 如果是非公开渠道获得的：立即停止分析，联系合规部
└── 专家/顾问：签署保密协议 + 合规部监督
研究后
├── 合规部审查信息来源
├── 允许市场有消化时间（通常 24-48 小时后发布）
└── 保留完整的研究底稿
五、测试题
1. Mosaic Theory 的核心是：
A) 可以从任何渠道获取信息进行投资分析
B) 通过收集和分析公开及非重大信息，像拼马赛克一样拼出投资结论
C) 可以使用重大非公开信息，只要不是直接来自内部人士
D) 仅适用于量化分析师
2. 以下哪项符合 Mosaic Theory 的合法做法？
A) 从公司保洁员处听说即将有重大裁员
B) 公开财报 + 行业数据 + 门店实地调研 + 综合判断
C) 付费从离职员工处获取前公司的未公开利润数据
D) 在公司公告发布前，从记者朋友处提前获得新闻稿
3. 专家网络咨询中，以下哪种提问最可能触发 II(A) 违规？
A) "你对这个行业的长期趋势怎么看？"
B) "你认为影响这个行业的监管因素有哪些？"
C) "你前公司这个季度的具体利润数字是多少？"
D) "这个行业的进入壁垒有哪些？"
4. CEO 在电话会中口误透露了未公开的重大合同信息。分析师应该：
A) 立即为客户下单——这是 CEO 自己说出来的
B) 联系公司合规部确认信息是否已公开，确认前不交易
C) 告诉几个重要客户
D) 等 5 分钟后再交易——口误不算
5. Mosaic Theory 和分析师勤勉义务的关系是：
A) 两者无关
B) Mosaic Theory 要求更高的勤勉——需要记录信息来源和分析过程
C) Mosaic Theory 降低了勤勉要求
D) Mosaic Theory 不需要任何记录
答案
- B — Mosaic Theory 就是用公开和非重大碎片拼出完整图景的方法。
- B — 公开数据 + 实地调研 + 分析综合 = 经典 Mosaic Theory。
- C — 直接追问具体未公开数字 → 获取 MNPI，触发 II(A)。
- B — 无论信息以什么方式出来，只要是非公开的 → 确认公开前不能交易。
- B — Mosaic Theory 反而要求更高的勤勉：记录每一步信息来源和分析过程。
上一课 L041：II(A) 内幕信息 · 下一课 L043：II(A) 案例分析
1. Definition of Mosaic Theory
Mosaic Theory: The process by which an analyst gathers public information and non-material nonpublic information, analyzes and synthesizes it to reach an investment conclusion. This is a legitimate investment research method.
2. The Legal vs. Illegal Boundary
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Legal (Mosaic Theory)
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Public financial analysis ✅
Industry trend research ✅
Company website / announcements ✅
Field research (public info) ✅
Questions to management
→ Management answers only public info ✅
Competitive analysis ✅
Expert networks (without crossing confidentiality) ✅
─────────────────────────────────────────────
⚠️ The line is here
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Illegal (II(A) Violation)
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Insider leaking nonpublic profit warning ❌
Early knowledge of unannounced M&A ❌
Obtaining nonpublic material contract info from staff ❌
Obtaining nonpublic regulatory penalty information ❌
─────────────────────────────────────────────
3. Key Cases
Case 1: A Successful Mosaic
An analyst researches a retail company. He gathered: ① public financials ② industry sales data ③ company public statements ④ site visits to multiple stores observing foot traffic. He synthesizes and concludes: next quarter revenues will beat expectations by 15%.
Ruling: ✅ Compliant. All information sources are public or obtained through independent observation. This is a classic Mosaic Theory application.
Case 2: Adding an Illegal Piece
An analyst conducts the same research but obtains from a company insider: "Supply chain has major problems; next quarter shipments will drop significantly." The analyst incorporates this into the analysis and advises clients to sell.
Ruling: ❌ Violation. Although much public information was used, once MNPI is mixed in and acted upon, the Mosaic Theory safe harbor no longer applies.
Case 3: Expert Networks
An analyst pays to consult an industry expert (a former insider). The analyst asks: "How do you think your former company performed this quarter?" The expert answers with specific profit figures based on nonpublic information learned while employed.
Ruling: ❌ Violation. Even through a third party (expert), obtaining MNPI and trading on it = II(A) violation. The expert may also breach confidentiality obligations to the former employer.
Case 4: Management Meeting
An analyst attends a quarterly earnings call. While answering a question, the CEO accidentally reveals: "We just signed a big client, but I can't disclose the exact amount yet — it's very large." The analyst immediately advises clients to buy.
Ruling: ❌ Violation. The CEO's slip is still nonpublic material information. On hearing it, the analyst should immediately contact the company's compliance department to confirm whether the information is public — no trading until confirmed as public.
4. Mosaic Theory Best Practices
Before Research
├── Clarify information sources: are they all from public channels?
└── Set compliance checkpoints: what information requires pausing to verify?
During Research
├── Document the source and time of every piece of information
├── If obtained from a nonpublic channel: stop immediately, contact compliance
└── Experts/advisors: signed NDA + compliance supervision
After Research
├── Compliance reviews information sources
├── Allow market absorption time (typically release after 24-48 hours)
└── Retain complete research files
5. Practice Questions
1. The core of Mosaic Theory is:
A) Obtaining information from any channel for investment analysis
B) Gathering and analyzing public and non-material information, piecing it together like a mosaic to form an investment conclusion
C) Using material nonpublic information, as long as it is not directly from an insider
D) Applicable only to quantitative analysts
2. Which qualifies as a legal Mosaic Theory approach?
A) Hearing from a company janitor about an upcoming major layoff
B) Public financials + industry data + store site visits + synthesized judgment
C) Paying a former employee for nonpublic profit data from their prior company
D) Obtaining a press release early via a journalist friend before public announcement
3. In an expert network consultation, which question is most likely to trigger a II(A) violation?
A) "What do you think about long-term trends in this industry?"
B) "Which regulatory factors do you think affect this industry?"
C) "What are the specific profit figures for your former company this quarter?"
D) "What are the barriers to entry in this industry?"
4. During a call, the CEO accidentally discloses nonpublic information about a major contract. The analyst should:
A) Immediately place client orders — the CEO said it publicly
B) Contact the company's compliance department to confirm whether the information is public; no trading until confirmed
C) Tell a few key clients
D) Wait 5 minutes and then trade — a slip does not count
5. The relationship between Mosaic Theory and an analyst's diligence obligation is:
A) They are unrelated
B) Mosaic Theory demands greater diligence — information sources and analytical processes must be documented
C) Mosaic Theory reduces diligence requirements
D) Mosaic Theory requires no documentation
Answer Key
- B — Mosaic Theory is precisely the method of using public and non-material fragments to assemble the full picture.
- B — Public data + field research + analytical synthesis = classic Mosaic Theory.
- C — Directly asking for specific undisclosed figures → obtaining MNPI, triggering II(A).
- B — Regardless of how information emerges, if it is nonpublic → no trading until public disclosure is confirmed.
- B — Mosaic Theory demands greater diligence: document each step's information source and analytical process.
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