📖 比率分析导论：分类与用途

Financial Statement Analysis

I. Lesson Focus

II. The Problem

A manufacturing company’s current ratio has fallen from 1.8 to 0.9, its quick ratio from 1.2 to 0.6, and its cash ratio from 0.4 to 0.15, while inventory days have lengthened dramatically. Management claims it is “just seasonal,” but creditors are worried the firm will soon be unable to repay maturing short-term debt. How should an analyst systematically classify and interpret these ratios? This lesson builds a complete framework for ratio analysis, enabling candidates to quickly judge whether a company has adequate short-term debt-paying ability and to understand the logical relationships among different ratio categories.

III. Fundamental Principles of Ratio Analysis

Ratio analysis links two or more financial-statement items through division to reveal insights about a firm’s operations, financial health, and risk. Absolute figures alone (e.g., “cash of $10 million”) have limited meaning; only when compared with sales, total assets, or liabilities can analysts judge whether the firm is healthy.

Key advantages of ratio analysis include: - Comparability: firms of different sizes within an industry can be compared horizontally; the same firm can be compared across years vertically. - Trend analysis: changes in ratios over time can be observed. - Predictive power: certain ratios help forecast future cash flows and default risk.

Limitations are equally important: ratios rely on historical data, are affected by accounting policy choices, ignore off-balance-sheet risks, and have vastly different benchmarks across industries.

IV. Classification Framework for Financial Ratios

CFA Level I requires mastery of six major categories, grouped by analytical purpose:

1. Liquidity Ratios
   Measure the ability to meet short-term obligations with current assets; focus on short-term solvency risk.

2. Solvency Ratios
   Measure long-term debt-paying ability and financial leverage (also called leverage ratios).

3. Profitability Ratios
   Measure profit-generation efficiency relative to sales, assets, and capital.

4. Efficiency (Activity / Turnover) Ratios
   Measure how efficiently assets are managed and operating cycles are executed.

5. Financial Leverage & Coverage Ratios
   Measure interest and fixed-charge coverage; often used together with solvency ratios.

6. Valuation Ratios
   Link market price or enterprise value to earnings, book value, or cash flow for equity valuation.

This lesson focuses on liquidity ratios; subsequent lessons examine the other categories in depth.

V. Detailed Explanation of Liquidity Ratios

The central question of liquidity ratios is: “If all short-term liabilities came due tomorrow, could the firm repay them with assets that can be converted to cash in the near term?”

1. Current Ratio

$$ \text{Current Ratio} = \frac{\text{Current Assets}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} $$ Typical benchmark > 1, but varies widely by industry (supermarkets may operate below 1; manufacturers usually need > 1.5). Excessively high values may signal idle funds, inventory buildup, or poor receivables collection.

2. Quick Ratio (Acid-test Ratio)

$$ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{\text{Cash + Marketable Securities + Receivables}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} = \frac{\text{Current Assets - Inventories - Prepaid Expenses}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} $$ Excludes inventory and prepaids because they convert to cash more slowly and may suffer impairment. It better reflects “emergency” debt-paying ability.

3. Cash Ratio

$$ \text{Cash Ratio} = \frac{\text{Cash + Cash Equivalents + Marketable Securities}}{\text{Current Liabilities}} $$ The most conservative liquidity measure, considering only immediately available cash and near-cash items. Banks and highly conservative creditors focus heavily on this ratio.

4. Defensive Interval Ratio

$$ \text{Defensive Interval} = \frac{\text{Cash + Marketable Securities + Receivables}}{\text{Daily Cash Expenditure}} $$ Indicates how many days the firm can operate without generating any revenue using only its “defensive” liquid assets.

5. Working Capital

$$ \text{Working Capital} = \text{Current Assets} - \text{Current Liabilities} $$ An absolute-dollar measure often used in conjunction with ratios.

VI. Uses and Limitations of Liquidity Ratios

Uses: - Assess short-term default risk - Predict liquidity crises - Set loan covenants for creditors - Monitor working-capital management efficiency by management

Limitations: - Static snapshots that can be window-dressed at the balance-sheet date - Do not reflect asset quality (receivables may be uncollectible) - Industry benchmarks differ dramatically (retail vs. heavy industry cannot be compared directly) - Ignore off-balance-sheet liabilities (operating leases, contingencies) - Numerator and denominator can be distorted by the same accounting policies

Worked Cases

Case 1: Basic Ratio Calculation

ABC Company reports the following year-end figures (in millions): - Cash & equivalents: 80 - Trading securities: 45 - Receivables: 220 - Inventory: 310 - Prepaid expenses: 25 - Current liabilities: 480

Calculate the current, quick, and cash ratios.

Solution: Current ratio = 680 / 480 = 1.42
Quick ratio = 345 / 480 = 0.72
Cash ratio = 125 / 480 ≈ 0.26

Case 2: Trend Analysis and Industry Comparison

XYZ Company liquidity ratios over three years:

Industry median: current 1.45, quick 0.85.
Interpretation: XYZ’s liquidity has deteriorated steadily and now sits well below industry medians. Inventory buildup or declining sales are likely culprits; further analysis of inventory turnover and receivables collection period is required.

Case 3: Integrated Scenario Analysis

A retailer reports a 2023 current ratio of 1.8 and quick ratio of 0.9. In 2024 it adopts a JIT “zero-inventory” system that cuts inventory by 60 %. At the same time, stricter supplier payment terms reduce average payables from 45 to 25 days, increasing current liabilities by 18 %. Assuming all other items remain constant, how will the current and quick ratios change?

Solution:
Inventory reduction increases both ratios; higher current liabilities decrease both. Because inventory is excluded from the quick-ratio numerator, the quick ratio improves less than the current ratio. Net effect: current ratio may rise modestly while quick ratio may fall. Exact direction and magnitude require numbers, but CFA candidates must be able to judge both direction and relative impact.

Traps

Key Formulas

• Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
• Quick Ratio = (Current Assets – Inventories – Prepaids) / Current Liabilities
• Cash Ratio = (Cash + Marketable Securities) / Current Liabilities
• Defensive Interval Ratio = (Cash + Marketable Securities + Receivables) / Daily Cash Expenditure
• Working Capital = CA – CL
• Liquidity ratios are highly correlated with efficiency ratios: slower inventory turnover tends to worsen liquidity ratios
• Liquidity problems usually appear first in the cash ratio, then the quick ratio, and finally the current ratio

Practice Questions

Q1. Which of the following is NOT a liquidity ratio?
A. Current ratio
B. Quick ratio
C. Interest coverage ratio
D. Cash ratio

Q2. A firm has current assets of $8 m, current liabilities of $5 m, inventory of $2.5 m, and prepaid expenses of $0.3 m. Its quick ratio is closest to:
A. 1.04
B. 1.60
C. 1.04
D. 1.10

Q3. When a firm adopts just-in-time (JIT) inventory management, the most likely outcome is:
A. Current ratio rises, quick ratio falls
B. Both current and quick ratios rise
C. Current ratio falls, quick ratio rises
D. Both ratios fall

Q4. The cash ratio is most useful for assessing the liquidity of:
A. Manufacturing firms
B. Banks and financial institutions
C. Retailers
D. Technology start-ups

Q5. Which statement about the limitations of liquidity ratios is incorrect?
A. They are static and can be manipulated at the balance-sheet date
B. They ignore differences in asset quality
C. They can fully substitute for cash-flow statement analysis
D. Industry benchmarks differ dramatically

Q6. A defensive interval ratio of 45 days means the firm can:
A. Operate for 45 days without external financing using existing liquid assets
B. Turn over its inventory in 45 days
C. Collect receivables in 45 days
D. Maintain a current ratio of approximately 1.45

Q7. An analyst finds that Company A’s current ratio of 2.8 is far above the industry average of 1.6. The most likely explanation is:
A. Extremely efficient working-capital management
B. Large quantities of slow-moving inventory or overly loose credit policy
C. Stronger long-term solvency
D. Cash ratio must also exceed the industry average

Q8. Which pair of ratios together provides the best assessment of short-term liquidity risk?
A. Current ratio + debt-to-assets ratio
B. Quick ratio + inventory turnover
C. Cash ratio + interest coverage
D. Net profit margin + current ratio

Answers

Takeaways

• Liquidity ratios primarily assess short-term debt-paying ability, focusing on obligations due within one year.
• Current ratio > quick ratio > cash ratio; the three ratios together paint a complete liquidity picture.
• Inventory is the largest source of distortion in liquidity analysis and must be cross-checked with turnover ratios.
• Ratio analysis must combine trends, industry benchmarks, and absolute working-capital amounts.
• All liquidity ratios are static; they must be used alongside the cash-flow statement and operating-cycle metrics.
• CFA exam questions frequently combine deteriorating liquidity with inventory turnover or receivables collection period in scenario format.